Brisbane’s housing market has surged more than 28% in just four years, but for the first time in years, the odds may be tilting in favour of buyers.
While many owner-occupiers are facing an “upgrade trap” amid high rates and slow wage growth, sharp-eyed buyers now have a unique opportunity to move decisively, before the next price spike.
The Upgrade Gridlock: Brisbane’s $1M+ Squeeze
Brisbane’s median house price hit $1,021,143 in May 2025, officially pushing most upgrade homes into the ‘premium’ $1M+ category. In suburbs like New Farm, Paddington and Bulimba, $1.4M for an apartment can no longer guarantee a river view, but it does often guarantee a pause from would-be upgraders.
In fact:
- Premium sales in these inner suburbs dropped 12% quarter-on-quarter.
- Vendor discounting is up 1.8% in the $1M+ tier.
In Carindale and Chermside, mid-ring family owners aren’t selling either; many have lived in their homes for over 10 years (ABS). Listings for homes in the $800K– $1M range are down 10% year-on-year.
The reason? Owners looking to step up simply can’t stretch into higher brackets under today’s rates. That’s left a growing pool of families sitting tight, creating a frustrating ripple effect for first-home buyers blocked from accessing mid-tier homes.
In outer-growth suburbs like North Lakes and Springfield Lakes, $500K–$650K homes are snapped up in days, while mid-tier listings ($700K–$900K) have fallen by 30% in sales numbers. Even those ready to move can’t take the next step without overextending their finances.
The Trilemma That’s Locked Up the Market
What’s behind this bottleneck? Three key forces:
- Flat Wages: Incomes have grown just 2–3% p.a. - barely ahead of inflation
- High Rates: Average home loans still sit at 5.3–6.0%
- Soaring Prices: Brisbane homes are up 28.2% in 4 years - units up 47.1%
That leaves many buyers, especially those who bought in 2020–2021, unable to “upgrade” without borrowing an extra $250K–$300K at rates that require an additional $17K+ a year in repayments.
The Flip Side: Why Now Is Brisbane’s Best Buyer Opportunity in Years
These very conditions causing gridlock are also creating an unusual opening for active buyers - especially those with finance pre-approved.
Here’s why:
- Every Rate Cut Sparks a Surge
After the RBA’s February cut, clearance rates soared to 72.1% in one week, and listings hit a 6-month high. With more cuts likely, buyer activity is expected to rebound sharply. - Prices Already Lifting Again
Brisbane values rose 0.6% in May, up from 0.4% in April, marking a 6.2% annual increase. Entry and mid-tier homes are leading the growth. - Consumer Sentiment Rebounding
Westpac’s “major purchase” confidence index jumped 7.5% in June, showing households are warming up to big spending decisions. - Borrowing Power Is About to Rise
Economists now price in another rate cut in July, with more likely this year, bringing the cash rate potentially to 3.35% by Christmas. That could restore borrowing power by tens of thousands for dual-income households. - The increased demand is likely to take another quantum leap forward from
January next year when the proposed Federal Governments First Home buyer stimulus package is due to start.
What This Means for Buyers
Brisbane’s property ladder may be jammed for many, but that has created a rare low-competition window in a market where long-term demand still outweighs supply.
- First-home buyers can act now with reduced pressure.
- Investors can secure rising-yield assets while prices are still climbing modestly.
- Upgraders with equity have a short-lived advantage before others regain serviceability and return to the market.
The Clock Is Ticking
As history shows, buyer and vendor confidence rebounds fast after rate cuts. Today’s conditions - slower competition, rising sentiment, and renewed momentum - won’t stick around.
For Brisbane buyers, this may be the quiet before the next storm.
For further media enquiries, please contact Place’s Head of PR, Jenna Fearnley: 0423 362 570